May 24, 2018
Grain Comments 2.12.18
February 12, 2018

Grain markets sharply higher out of the chute last night and holding gains this morning. At 0600 CH18 up $0.03 at $3.65 with SH18 up $0.15 at $9.98. Big volume on both contracts.

 

Dow futures up 308 pts at 24,477 with S&P futures 29 pts higher at 2,248.50. Crude oil gaining $0.84 trading $60.04. US $ Index giving up some ground.

 

Last week saw corn gain just a ½ cent in a high to low $0.11 ¼ range. Soybeans gained just $0.04 ¼ in a $0.28 ¼ range.

 

For the third week in a row trade underestimated amount of short covering by Funds. CFTC data late Friday showed they covered 45K corn and 11K soybeans as of last Tuesday. As of this morning we have them short 73K corn, 14K soybeans and 85K Chi wheat. 

 

Soybean harvest in the northern most soybean producing state of Mato Grosso near 29% complete. Significantly below last year’s pace and just slightly below the 3 year average.

 

No changes for Argentine weather. Rains in northern areas this past weekend resulted in some limited improvements, but dry weather across all areas this week will allow moisture shortages and stress to build once again. The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged, with some additional limited improvements possible in northern areas.

 

Private forecasting group out of Brazil has that countries corn production at 88 mmt or nearly 7 mmt under the current USDA estimate.

 

At 530 mln bu the current US soybean carryout is the largest monthly estimate since the 06/07 crop.

 

Weekly export inspections mid-morning will get the usual “how far behind the pace needed” treatment.



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