September 25, 2018
Grain Comments 3.13.18
March 13, 2018

Markets largely firm at 0630 with CK18 up $0.01 at $3.91 ¾ and SK18 up $0.03 ¼ at $10.44 ¼. KC and Chi wheat $0.03 ¾ and $0.02 ½ better.

 

Crude oil just a scratch lower this morning at $61.36. Dow futures up 53 pts. US $ Index showing some strength.

 

After giving up a quick 50 cents in two days, soybeans catching its breath with some consolidative price action.

 

Funds estimated buying 9K corn and 7K soybeans yesterday. We have them net long 189K corn and 159K soybeans.

 

Argentine forecast has rains in eastern areas later this week. Dryness will continue in central and western areas. Fast approaching the “It just doesn’t matter” point for Argentine weather if we are not already there. Weekend rains in the forecast for RGDS Brazil which will benefit. 

 

USDA has 53% of the Kansas wheat crop rated poor to very poor. Only 12% G/E.

 

Corn and soybean open interest up 14 and 7K contracts respectively yesterday.

 

March futures go off the board tomorrow. When CK18 becomes the lead month it will leave the second unfilled open chart gap on the daily continuation chart. Will send a picture of that Thursday after the transition. My hunch is we are not going to leave both of those gaps go unfilled. 

 

Weekly Corn inspections beat expectations at 1,376,999 tonnes. Remain skeptical we can come close to current USDA sales figure as a new record pace will be needed to get there. Capacity maxed?

 

Little fresh news for trade with significant amount of soybean Fund long in the red. Nearly all the 189K net Fund corn long in the black……………………………

 



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