July 17, 2018
Morning comments 4.11.2018
April 11, 2018

 At 0630 CK18 up a ½ cent at $3.89 ¾ with SK18 up $0.07 ¾ at $10.57 ¾. KC and Chi wheat $0.04 ¾ and $0.03 ¼ lower respectively. Hard to believe SX18 within $0.04 ¾ of its recent contract high of $10.60.
 
Dow futures zig zag continues down 230 points this morning at 24,125. The Dow working its third rally attempt only to fall short of the previous high. S&P futures also sharply lower. Crude oil up near a buck at $66.40. US $ index in negative territory.
 
Hand wringing continues on China tariffs but the bigger risk perhaps Russian sanctions? Moscow-traded stocks headed for the biggest drop in four years, the currency slid the most in the world and the nation’s credit risk soared. Back a wounded animal into a corner comes to mind.
 
WASDE report held no major surprises yesterday with USDA incorporating some of the stocks data. Trade will continue to suspect exports of both corn and soybeans overstated. Sharp 7 mmt reduction in Arg soy prod softened a touch with a 2 mmt increase in Braz. World soy carryout down near 5 mmt but still the second largest ever behind last year’s record
 
Suspect we have seen the lowest world soy carryout forecast of the year.
 
Yesterday looked at price scatter showing overpriced soy values. Or is demand once again grossly understated? Continue to lean in the former scenario camp.
 
Delayed spring fieldwork favor more bean acres? Too early to call? SX18 at $10.54 pushing us in that direction?
 
Brazil fob soybean basis relaxing after initial spike higher on all the China noise. US the recipient of uptick in nontraditional business as a result.
 
Market searching for a story to latch onto. CFTC report Friday anticipated.
 


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