August 18, 2018
Early Market Talk 5.16.2018
May 16, 2018

 Low volume overnight with CN18 up $0.01 ½ and SN18 off $0.05 ¼ at 0630. KC
wheat up $0.03 ¼.
 
Dow futures up 13 pts this morning at 24,761. Crude oil 16 pts lower at $71.14.
US $ Index showing modest strength.
 
Updated acreage estimate from Informa has corn acres at 89.0 million acres up
from USDA’s 88.0. Soybean acres up 400K at 89.4 million acres compared to
USDA at 89.0 mln.
 
Yesterday we looked at the last 4 meaningful corn rallies and found them at 83,
92, 92 and 94 cents. Current rally working on 65 cents. Interesting to note
breaks after these events. (Let me know if you did not see the chart)
 
Long way to go and understanding there are some areas not planted, still
suspect we are going to have our first crop rating of the year at one of the
higher levels in recent history?
 
CZCN sensitivity to flat price noted yesterday with the spread pulling in to $0.16
¼ and trading $0.15 ½ overnight.
 
Funds bought an estimated 13K contracts of corn yesterday which brings them
to a suspected long near 190K. Even beans yesterday so we guess them at 122K
long this morning.
 
CZ18 would again appear to have little if any risk premium dialed into current
price given stocks / use ratio.
 
Rains expected in southern Brazil corn growing areas through the weekend.
 
Planters were rolling south of Ames IA yesterday. Area missed the weekend
rains.
 
Will take a look at the last few soybean market rallies later this morning………
 


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