October 23, 2018
Early Market Talk 6.13.2018
June 13, 2018

Early Market Talk

BRUCE NELSON • JUNE 13, 2018


Nice rebound yesterday could not follow through overnight. At 0600 CN18 off
$0.02 with SN18 down $0.09. KC and Chi wheat off $0.08 and $0.07
respectively. Modest volume all the way around.

Trade started firm overnight but supposedly reversed course on a report that
the $50 billion in Tariffs against Chinese imports would go into effect??

USDA reports yesterday largely as expected. Lower carryout of both old crop
corn and soybeans subsequently lowering new crop carryout as well.

New crop corn carryout at 1,577 mln bu the smallest carryout in a June report
since 2011. CZ deserves a premium to last several years price. Yesterday we
looked at a price scatter with prices in June. Will take a look at the same data
against prices in October for harvest perspective.

CZ18 today at $3.96 is $0.02 less than a year ago this date

Corn open interest down 9K contracts on the rally yesterday. Signifies short
covering not new longs? Soybeans OI up 9K.

Dow futures up 33 pts this morning at 25,329. Crude off 36 pts at $66.01.

SXSF pushing 50% of full carry at $0.07 ¾ and nearly same level as a year ago
this date. A year ago SXSF did reach double digits late.

Farmer selling remains at a standstill across the country.

Will take a look at calculated soy crush margins later today.

Nationally, the 50% corn pollination date is expected to occur on July 18, one
day ahead of the 5 year average and one day ahead of last year.

Funds sold 33K corn Monday and bought back 22K yesterday. Have them net
long 48Kk this morning. Net long just 16K soybeans….



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