July 17, 2018
Early Market Talk 6.28.2018
June 28, 2018

Early Market Talk

BRUCE NELSON • JUNE 28, 2018


Thin volume overnight and relatively tight trade range. At 0600 CN18 off ¾ of a
cent at $3.51 ¾ with SN18 off $0.01 ¾ at $8.65 ¾. Chi and KC wheat a scratch
lower.

Dow futures up 31 points this morning. Crude near unchanged. US $ slightly in
the red.

Some heat building back into the belt next few days to remind traders its
summer.

USDA reports tomorrow. More corn and soybean acres expected. Average
stocks of 5,268 mln corn and 1,225 mln soybeans. How these compare to USDA
key to price action in the short term. Set up for sell the rumor buy the fact?

History of volatile price action on this report day. Soybeans have seen 4 higher
closes in the last five years with an average gain of 32 cents. The one lower
year was down 32 cents. Corn average rally over this time was 18 cents. The
breaks averaged 16 ½ cents.

Current SN18 price level is the lowest a SN contract has traded this date since
2007. This date in ’07 the SN07 closed at $8.09 ¾.

Brazil soybeans quoted near $1.25 higher than US origin. So I suspect if you are
a country that does not impose import tariffs on US beans you’re giving us a
look this morning.

Weekly export sales report at 0730 this morning. Trade expecting 600 – 1,000K
tonnes of corn sales. Soybeans sales of between 300 – 500K tonnes.

A year ago this time we were selling China near 68K tonnes of beans a week or
so. Not their big buying season for US beans

Sheepishly expecting a quiet session….



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