September 25, 2018
Early Market Talk 7.10.2018
July 10, 2018

Early Market Talk

BRUCE NELSON • JULY 10, 2018


Lot of red on the screen this morning. At 0600 CU18 off $0.03 at $3.51 with
SQ18 off $0.02 ¼ at $8.53 ½. Chi and KC wheat 9 ¾ and 8 lower respectively.

Dow futures 50 pts higher after nice gains yesterday. Crude and the US $ Index
both higher.

Trade volume yesterday was 271K contracts on corn and just 171K soybeans.

Soybeans this morning within 13 cents of last week’s low. Corn within 6 cents of
its low.

Corn G/E rating down 1% wk/wk to 75%. Compares to a year ago of 65% and 5
year average of 71%. Six of the 18 states that make up the survey are below
their average (KS, MI, MO, NC, PA and TX) while the largest producing states
(SD, NE, IA, IL, IN, MN, WI and OH) are all above their respective five yr ave.

Soybean G/E rating at 71% was unchanged on the week

CFTC adjusted we have managed money crowd now net short 112K corn and
62K soybeans. Sold estimated 14K corn and 10K soybeans yesterday.

Trade anticipating lower new crop soybean export estimate in Thursdays USDA
report? Uncertainty with China for the 18/19 crop year addressed? Largest June
– July decline in soy export forecast to this point was the drought impacted
estimated of ’12. Three of the last 5 years exports have been unchanged in this
report with two years higher.

Source indicates Chinese Govt will reimburse the 25% tariff on imported US
soybeans if those soybeans are for state reserves? Interesting and opens a
whole line of thoughts.

GFS bringing in some bigger rains late week into the weekend for N IA, S MN
and NW NE. Drier conditions persist in the east and starting to get some
attention.



go back