August 18, 2018
Early Market Talk 8.9.2018
August 09, 2018

Early Market Talk

BRUCE NELSON • AUGUST 9, 2018


Thin volume overnight (CZ 10K and SX 3.4K) and at 0630 trading $3.85 ¾ and
$9.07 which are ¾ higher and $0.03 ½ lower respectively. KC wheat $0.08 ½
lower.

KC wheat – corn spread $2.16 ½. High water mark $2.38 Tuesday.

Looked at trades historical deviations from USDA Aug yields earlier this week.
While tomorrows report is arguably a top 5 report in terms of market
importance, the yield guesses will continue. Will take a quick look at how much
final yields have changed from the Aug report later this morning.

Average price changes the day of the August report is near 10 cents on corn
and 20 for soybeans.

NOAA 7-day rainfall maps don’t have much rain in the forecast for the western
belt with amount totals under 1”. Eastern belt on top of 1” accumulations.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1533815290

Corn open interest down another 17K contracts yesterday and 66K since last
Thursday.

Noted USDA will change procedures for release of the report tomorrow. No
longer will press be allowed in lockup to see numbers before release. They get
them the same time everybody else. Any bets on if the servers can handle the
hits? Here is the direct link.
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/crop0818.pdf

Dalian soybean and soymeal futures sharply higher for the second day. Fact
that China cannot source enough beans from SA to satisfy internal demand. Go
without or resolve tariff issues?

Technical picture consolidating and would imply a sizeable move on a breakout
of recent congestion? How fitting heading into tomorrow’s report and its
history of sizeable price moves….



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