October 23, 2018
Early Market Talk 10.5.2018
October 05, 2018

Early Market Talk

BRUCE NELSON • OCTOBER 5, 2018

Fractional gains so far this morning on corn and soybeans. Chi and KC wheat up
near 4 cents on US competitiveness around the world.

Our team in Australia has their wheat crop at 16 mmt some 4 mmt under the
current USDA forecast.

Wheat / corn spread closer to the historical high end of annual ranges.

Screen showing 36K CZ18 trading so far this morning with 24K on the CH19.
CZCH spread saw 18K trade. CZCH at 12 only in the rearview mirror.

Next 7 days have rain in the forecast for the majority of Iowa. Expecting 4” – 6”
total accumulations over this time for most of the state. Maps showing much
drier conditions after this event rolls through.

Several locations rolling on corn yesterday. “Picking” fields that could handle
equipment. Expecting modest corn harvest progress in Tuesday’s report. Not so
much on soybeans. Last week Iowa corn was 11% with soybeans at 15%.

State of Parana in Brazil reported 29% planted vs last year this date at 16%.

Brazilian currency has rallied sharply against the US $ this week. Soybeans price
the Brazilian farmer sees under considerable pressure as a result. Send you the
picture of that shortly.

Even on the rally SXSN has been able to work out to 51 cents. Spector of a
billion bu carryout overpowering.

Columbus Day Monday so Banks and Govt offices are closed. Markets operate
normally.

WASDE monthly Supply / Demand report next Thursday. Once again yields will
be “the” driver.



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