November 19, 2018
Early Market Talk 11.7.2018
November 07, 2018

Early Market Talk

BRUCE NELSON • NOVEMBER 7, 2018


Bigger volume in corn overnight (60K) with a big chunk of that CZCH spreading
as we enter the first day of the Fund roll.

At 0630 CZ18 off just a ½ cent at $3.72 ¾ with SF19 up $0.01 at $8.85 ¼. KC
what e unchanged.

Dow futures showing some strength up 139 points at 25,772. Crude up .63 at
$62.84. US $ Index sharply lower.

249 soybean deliveries continue to recirculate – Delivery data again current
with open interest on the SX18 contract at 3,788.

Monthly supply / demand and production reports tomorrow. Average trade
guess on corn yield is 180 bpa down .7 from Oct. Average trade guess for
soybean yield at 52.9 is .3 below the USDA Oct estimate.

After Thursdays reports attention shifts back to US / China trade talks. Trump
and Xi expected to meet at G20 meeting in Argentina later this month.

China officials had ’17 corn production at 215.9 million tonnes as did USDA.
New data from CNGOIC shows last year's crop was 259 million tonnes.

Cursory look shows Fund buying in corn has totaled near 200K contacts over the
previous month or so. Rallied futures 30 cents. Take a little closer look at that
later this morning.

Inverted head and shoulder chart pattern on the SF19 contract still has my
attention.

Some 10 – 20 cent pushes on bean basis with harvest wrapped up.

Some noted bear spreading of SNSX yesterday as that spread made it into 7
cents on the flat price rally.



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