Early Market Talk

Firm trade at 0600 with CH19 up $0.01 ½ at $3.86 ¾ and SH19 $0.01 ¼ higher at $9.25 ½. KC and Chi wheat up $0.02 ½. Optimism with trade talks lending support. US official again suggesting a trade deal the US and China could both live with and addresses all key issues has a “very good chance”.

Dow futures up 190 points this morning at 23,702. US $ firm and crude oil $0.59 higher at $49.11.

Trade source suggests China bought close to 1 mmt of US soybeans yesterday lending support to prices through the day. Will take a whole lot more to have any lasting impact. To date US soy shipments total 17.7 mmt to all countries compared to 26.6 mmt this date a year ago. That’s 341 million bushels behind last year’s pace.

China has bought 5 mmt of US soybeans to date. Contrast that with near 23 mmt this date a year ago. That’s over a 600 mln bu difference.

Wind gust of 40 – 50 mph expected across the state of Iowa today. Those with ground pile tarps perhaps a little anxious?

This past weekend C IA nearly hit its record high temp. Not drawing any direct comparisons but the record high for last Saturday was 65 degrees set in 2012.

CH19 $0.11 ¼ off its December low. Smallest rally off the December low for CH futures the past 10 years has been 16 cents. The average rally for CH has been 74 cents over these years.

Trade ideas Brazil soy production has declined into the 118 mmt area from last USDA estimate at 122 mmt due to ongoing dryness. Would still leave world carryout at record levels.

Weather outlook for Brazil over the next two weeks little changed with drought conditions persisting in NC regions. Flooding rains across northern Arg. Trade leaning toward further production declines for both countries.