Early Market Talk

Starting the week mixed and at 0600 see CH19 unchanged at $3.80 ¼, SH19 off $0.03 ¼ at $9.21 ½ and KC wheat trading up a couple cents.

Partial Gov’t shutdown over for the time being. USDA indicating delayed NASS production and stocks data from the 11th will be released February 8th with the regularly scheduled WASDE reports. CFTC commitment of traders data this Friday will catch us up on 5 weeks of delayed data.

Dow futures feeling the pressure from Asian equity markets which were mostly lower overnight. At 0600 Dow futures off 157 points at 24,539. Crude oil giving up near a buck at $52.77.

Funds long a guesstimated 118K corn and 6K soybeans. Again with the above in mind Friday’s CFTC data will be interesting.

Trade anxious for Chinese Vice Premier Liu visit to Washington on Jan. 30-31 for the next round of trade negotiations with US officials.

Weekend rains in Brazil favored the northern 1/3 of the soybean growing regions with some 1” – 3” amounts being discussed. Other areas saw a trace to 1.5” on roughly 30% coverage. Clock ticking on rain in Brazil a non-factor.

Trade generally sees Brazil soybean production in the 115 -116 area with some “Lone Wolf” noise much smaller. Personally, find it extremely doubtful the crop there could be smaller than 110 and if not, the long-term price outlook for soybeans remains bleak.

Soybean technical picture remains interesting however with SH19 testing the most recent January 7th high at $9.27 ¾ and its up-trending channel at this point still intact. CH19 also remaining largely range bound but building for a technical breakout. Bias favors an upside breakout but willing to acknowledge some headwinds.

Weekly export inspections later this morning.