Early Market Talk

Higher overnight trade in part fueled by misleading trade announcements late yesterdays. At 0600 CH19 up 1 cent at $3.77 ½ with SH19 up 8 ½ at $9.23 ½. Volume up sharply at 15 and 23K on the lead corn and soy contracts. KC and Chi wheat gaining a couple cents as well.

Some confusion yesterday with news outlets reporting China would buy 5 mmt of soybeans per day?Guessing a translation error. No way that should even be considered plausible and should not have given it page space here, but I did see / hear it several times.

What is perhaps the most encouraging on the trade front is that President Trump said, “He has seen progress from China on IP” He also was quoted as saying he would meet with Xi. Trade delegation heading to China shortly to continue trade talks.

Dow futures near steady this morning at 6 points lower at 24,970. Crude oil also near steady at $45.75.

COT data this afternoon but will be data from December 24th. Waste of time. Our best guess (and it could be way off) is Funds have a net long corn position today near 100K contracts and short near 3K soybeans.

SH19 trying to test January 7th high at $9.27 ¾ which should offer solid resistance.

CH19 remains in an ever-tightening price range.

Winterkill on wheat from cold blast getting perhaps some unwarranted attention?

Don’t take your eye off the bigger picture in soybeans. Cut current stocks / use ratio in half and it could still be argued soybean price is too high. Short term noise continues.

Written by:

Bruce Nelson