Early Market Talk

Corn and soybeans showing fractional declines overnight on once again think volume. At 0600 CH19 trading $3.78 off ¾ of a cent and SH19 $9.16 ¾ off a full cent. KC and Chi wheat down a ½ and $0.01 ¼ respectively.

Dow futures 26 higher at 25,023 with crude giving up $0.19 at $55.07 and the US $ firm.

Friday’s price surge in soybeans (up 16 cents at one point) took out the January 7th high at $9.27 but unable to sustain support only finishing 2 ½ higher on the day. Price action not encouraging for the Bulls but remains rangebound in the short term.

Colleagues in Brazil have lowered their forecast for Brazil soybean production to near 14 mmt from the previous estimate of 16 mmt. A 73 mln bu drop.

Trade already looking ahead to Friday with a barrage of UASDA reports.Delayed production and stocks data from January 11th will be included with normal February WASDE numbers. CONCAB will also be out with their estimate of Brazil soybeans.

Trade source has China buying an additional 1 mmt of soybeans this past Friday bringing the total to 6 mmt. Chinese markets closed this week in observance of the Lunar New Year.

US Trade officials heading to China mid-February to continue trade negotiations.

Ethanol crush margins have been running negative to breakeven since November and the longest stretch of no margin on record. Most suspect corn used for ethanol will be reduced from 25 – 50 mln bu. Offset any potential drop in corn yield Friday?

Weekend rains in Brazil favored southern areas where rains cold still do some good for soybeans. Sending a few more weather comments on Brazil shortly...

Written by:

Bruce Nelson