Early Market Talk

Early trade has CH19 up $0.01 ½ at $3.76 ½ and SF19 off $0.02 at $8.91 ½. KC and Chi wheat $0.04 ¾ and $0.05 lower.

Dow futures off 95 points at 22,907 and crude off .45 at $45.45. Oil prices at their lowest since the third quarter of 2017. US $ index showing sharp gains after a week of daily declines. 

US House passed a stop gap spending bill that includes funding for the border wall. Not expected to pass the Senate with all democrats expected to vote no. Govt shutdown at midnight tonight likely? 

China plans to make a third round of U.S. soybean purchases within days. More than 2 million tonnes of additional purchases are likely before the Christmas. While welcomed not materially enough to alter longer term bearish fundamentals. Perhaps enough to influence some product flows and logistics? 

Corn export sales yesterday at 2.5 mmt were a record for this week in history. That’s 98.5 million bu.

Funds sold an estimated 12K corn yesterday and we have them net long 81K contracts. Funds net short an estimated 16K contracts. Updated CFTC data later this afternoon.

Any hopes the early December low in corn at $3.80 would hold obviously trashed with CH19 hitting $3.75 yesterday. CH last year made its December low on the 19th a year ago at $3.46 ½ and another new low of $3.45 in January before it started a $0.49 ¾ rally. Going to mention again the ave rally on the CH contract off the December low the previous 5 years has been 43 cents.

Showers scattered across Mato Grosso/Parana in past day & were widespread farther south to narrow Brazil stress. Significant corn/soy stress now limited to about 10% Brazil. Most remaining areas picking up relief this weekend.

Consolidative trade heading into the weekend...

Written by:

Bruce Nelson