Early Market Talk

Markets taking a breath overnight after the pounding they took yesterday which came largely from net cancelations of weekly soybean sales.

At 0630 CH19 up ¾ of a cent at $3.75 ½ with SH19 up $0.04 at $9.07 ½. Wheat slipping fractionally in both Chi and KC. Huge volume in CH19 last night (32K) and would welcome anybody thoughts on that.

Dow futures up 77 at 25,500 this morning. Crude $0.26 higher at $54.67. US $ Index firm.

State climatologist suggesting weak El Nino suggests we could see a warm / wet spring in the Midwest this year. Another strike against the kind of acreage shift to corn we need to see?

Series of producer meeting we have stressed that with only two million more corn acres and a yield like this year our stocks use ratio could fall toward 8 from the current level near 11. That argues CZ19 forward futures are today undervalued.

Informa has their corn acreage estimate at 91.6 mln (89.1 mln this year) and soybeans at 86 mln compared to 89.2 mln this year.

Trump expected to sign budget bill this morning to avoid another Gov’t shutdown. Expected to also declare a national emergency regarding border security.

President Xi of China said trade talks with the United States will continue in Washington next week and he hopes they will result in a trade deal.

Private firm in Argentina increased production estimate for Argentina by 2 mmt to 52 mmt.

Markets closed next Monday for Presidents day. Trade will resume Monday night.

Article Written by:

Bruce Nelson