Early Market Talk

Markets taking divergent paths this morning and looking a little more like fundamentals would suggest. At 0500 CH19 up $0.03 at $3.72 ¾ with SH19 giving up another $0.01 ½ at $8.99 ¼. Vol on CH19 backing off from previous two sessions but still a respectable 13K as of this writing.

Chart picture on the two above contracts concerning for Bulls with SH19 trading below its uptrend line drawn off the September 19th low and outside its uptrending channel. SH19 has yet not taken out its previous low of $8.91 set Jan 15th however.

Weather forecast for Brazil looks favorable to round out the crop year. Rains forecast for the next two weeks in southern regions will benefit developing crops and likely stabilize production north of the 115 mmt area?

Argentina weather also largely favorable but some heat noted in SW areas will have trade attention. Especially given last year with them losing near 15 mmt of production from this date to May.

Winter weather in part continues to support Midwest basis values and soon will have trade talking spring planting. Bitter cold and more snow in the forecast with us knocking on March’s door will start to get some talk right or wrong. A week of 70’s late March can change peoples tune in a hurry.

Sign across the street where I live says 47 days until first pitch!

Winter weather not only an issue for the Midwest but storms across the Delta that are in the forecast call into question planting conditions there and take early planting off the table?

Funds down for selling 21K corn yesterday and brings the estimated net short to near 48K.

First notice day on March deliveries next week. At current levels would have any / all positions not expected to price rolled forward……

Article Written by:

Bruce Nelson