Early Market Talk

Ag Outlook Forum released supply demand tables this morning and show stocks to use ratio on corn at 11 and basically unchanged. Soybean ratio tighter at just over 17 and still not supporting current values. Tables at this link: https://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/2019/outlooks/Grains_and_Oilseeds.pdf

CH19 and SH19 both a penny higher at 0600 trading $3.76 ½ and $9.11 ¾ respectively. Modest volume overall.

Funds credited with buying 15K corn and 9K soybeans yesterday. Net totalsstand at -27K corn and long 17K soybeans.

March options go off the board today. Interesting to see if $3.80 strike on CH19 gets closer to the finish line today.

Heavier rainfall in Brazil will shift into southern areas this weekend and early next week favoring late soybean growth. Suspect recent rains and forecast will prove stabilizing to production forecasts and hold trade ideas around the 115mmt range.

USDA Ag Attaché in Brazil estimates the countries soybean crop at 115.5 million tonnes. Current USDA estimate at 117 mmt.

Data dump of previous 6 weeks export sales numbers this morning. Should see some big numbers with muted impact.

Weekly ethanol production at 996K barrels per day running 6.7% under a year ago and argues perhaps for another reduction in the corn used for ethanol production by 25 mln bu?

Spring flood prediction forecast high with saturated soils last fall and heavy snow cover with more on the way.

Cut the soybean stocks / use ratio in half and SH20 next year still looks overvalued by 60 cents…