Early Market Talk April 1, 2021

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NASS Acreage report opening some interesting market action. Corn and soybean acres at 91.44 and 87.6 were a combined 4.5 mln below the average trade guess. Numbers viewed suspiciously (and rightly so) but are the hard numbers until June.

Where did the 2 million acres “lost” between the USDA Ag Outlook Forum and today’s report go?

March 1st corn stocks at 7.701 mln bu were close to trade ideas as were soybean stocks at 1,564 mln bu. Trade miss on corn stocks the second smallest of the previous 10 years. Soybean miss the smallest is four years.

Quick look at carryout Matrix for corn and soybeans shows carryout of 21/22 corn near 1,300 mln and soybeans near 100 mln bu. Corn at 1,300 does not support $5.00 corn on October 1st. Certainly does on April 1st with the entire growing season ahead. Matrix for both corn and soybean carryout to follow shortly.

Trade volume totals yesterday were 413K corn with OI increasing near 9K contracts. Soybean volume of 336K contracts and OI up near9K contracts as well.

At 0600 this morning CK21 13 ½¢ higher at $5.77 ¾. SK21 6 ½¢ higher at $14.43 ¼. New crop SX21 the strongest month this morning up 23 ¾¢ at $12.80. Volume totals overnight of 153K corn and 110K soybeans to this point. Chi and KC wheat under some pressure.

Dow futures 30 points higher at 32,928. Crude 37¢ higher at $59.52. US $ Index a scratch lower. Brazilian Real sharply higher against the US $.

Ethanol production last week up 4.7% to 965,000 barrels/day. Stocks down 3.2% and remain 18% below year-ago levels.

Not expected to be in play but CME price limits today are 40¢ on corn and $1.05 soybeans.

No markets tomorrow in Observance of Good Friday.

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