Early Market Talk April 5, 2021

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Incredibly poor price performance last Thursday. Corn and soybeans both gapped higher on the open and ended the day with a lower close. Soybeans especially weak with double digit losses as spec selling accelerated after failing to breech the March 8th high of $14.60. Some suggesting a double top on the daily chart. Short sellers have a solid stop out point.

Open interest on Thursday’s price action showed corn up over 16K contracts. Only a handful of days with a larger daily OI increase this year. Soybean open interest off a few hundred contracts.

At 0600 this morning Soybeans clawing back some of Thursday’s losses. SK21 up 11 ¼¢ at $14.13 ¼ on volume of near 11K contracts. CK21 off now ¾ of a cent at $5.58 ¾ on vol of near 17K contracts. KC wheat off a ½¢.

Dow futures up 209 points at 33,245 on the heels of good March jobs report data. Report beat expectations by over 900K.

WASDE April Supply / Demand report this Friday. Incorporates last Weeks NASS quarterly stocks numbers and implications. Acreage data goes into next months (April) report with the initial look at the 21/22 balance tables.

Export inspections this morning at 10:00. Trade again will debate corn pace to see if we can exceed USDA estimate of 2,600 mln bu. Or even get there.

StoneX Brazil 20/21 soybean production estimate increased from 133.5 to 134.0 late last week. Slight increase in both acreage and yields.

Going to take a quick look at combined corn and soybeans acres in last weeks report and compare to a year ago in March. Specifically noting where price levels are today vs a year ago and ask the question why. Later this morning.

Weather headlines this morning - Wet weather to favor northwestern Midwest this week. Dryness to persist in central and southern Safrina corn areas. Rain to slow fieldwork in Argentina later this week.

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