Early Market Talk August 24, 2020


Past 72 hours saw some decent rain in Eastern ND, SC MN and NC Iowa. Largely dry outside these areas with hat / dry week ahead. Weekend heat and dryness combined with this week forecast taking a toll. Next week looks cooler and increased rain chances. Crop, whatever it is, likely smaller than a week ago and most certainly smaller than two weeks ago. Major question, by enough to move the price needle? Perhaps not.

At 0630 CZ20 trading 1 ¾¢ higher at $3.42 ¼ with SX20 3 ¾¢ higher at $9.08 ½. Solid volume on these two at 25 and 23K contracts. KC wheat trading a penny higher at $4.46 ¾.

Dalian corn futures down hard overnight.

Dow futures up 278 points this morning at 28,136 making a new high for the move and within 1,400 points of its Feb 12th all time high of 29,543.

Two hurricanes heading toward Gulf states expected to pump rain chances into central and eastern corn belt by late week / weekend.

Weekly crop progress reports this afternoon expected to show declines in the G/E ratings for both corn and soybeans.

Pro Farmer crop tour results had a US corn yield of 177.5 bpa compared to August USDA estimate of 181.8 bpa. Their soybean yield was 52.5 compared to USDA at 53.3 bpa. Our next survey scheduled for next Monday, August 31st.

CFTC data released Friday showed Funds buying significantly more soybeans the previous week than we tracked. Updated with this data we know show Funds holding a net long near 100K contracts. Our guess was close to CFCT on corn and as of this morning we show managed money guys holding a net short of 125K contracts.

SXSF back at 7¢ equaling the best level this year. Back on the front burner.

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