Early Market Talk August 24, 2021

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100°-mark hit is southern half of Iowa yesterday. That on top a less than expected or non-existent weekend rains giving that area some of what the Dakotas have been experiencing nearly all year. Getting a grip on state / national yield remains a tough call with some areas in great shape and others going backwards.

Weekly crop ratings lower as expected by most. Corn G/E rating at 60% off 2% on the week. Soybean rating at 56% down 1%. A quick look at state-by-state trends and Poor / very poor data to follow. 

Markets stronger overnight led by the soybean complex. SX21 trading 15¢ higher at $13.07 3⁄4 in the 5 o’clock hour. CZ21 trading 3¢ higher at $5.38 1⁄2. Vol totals respectively of 16 and 13K contracts to this point in the session. Chi, KC, and MN wheat all in the red. 

Hot week. Dry week. But, seasonal headwinds are strong. Having said that, a year ago SX rallied nearly $2.50 this date into contract expiration. There are exceptions. Emotions and expectations over the last few months however the polar opposite of a year ago. SX21 high this year $6.50 above the SX20 low. 

Recent breakout of wedge chart formation, developing bear flag and seasonal headwinds giving pause. This all in the face of the tightest stocks use ratio on new crop ever seen. Suspect we are not done with some wide price swings. 

US origin beans are the market into the new year. Better continue to see these flash sales to China daily. That advantage will no doubt shift early in ’22 with the nod back to Brazil and its near 150 mmt (over 5 bln bu ) of production expected. 

Yesterday looked at the SXSN trading the best level in over a year. Having some on might be prudent with timing the key. Like last year when it made a move, will be driven largely by flat price. Let me know when soybeans are starting a buck or two rally. 

Quick look at that developing bear flag on the daily bean chart to follow. 

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