Early Market Talk August 25, 2021

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Overnight trade giving back some of yesterday’s solid gains in a too much too soon fashion. Rain yesterday afternoon in S MN and NE IA also cooling trade. Southern IA also seeing unexpected rain this morning.

At 0530 SX21 off 5 1⁄2¢ at $13.26 1⁄2 and has seen a trade as much as 10¢ lower. CZ21 off 4¢ at $5.41 1⁄4 in a 5 3⁄4¢ range. Trade vol of 13K on SX and near 12K on CZ to this point in the session. KC and Chi wheat lower as well. 

Dow futures little changed this morning at 35,325. Crude a scratch higher at $67.63.

CRP Acres expanding this year for the first since 2007. By the end of this year, as many as 4 million acres expected to be added. CRP acres now are at its smallest level, 20.6 million acres, since 1987. 

Have heard more than one reference to Monday’s lows on corn and soybeans referred to a the seasonal low. Seasonal corn low last year was scored mid Aug but this is not ’20. As mentioned yesterday, trade emotions and dynamics are opposite of a year ago. 

SX21 testing 20 day moving average yesterday with several others just above. My bias is we don’t have the “story” to push through those and more than likely see additional price pressure in the day’s / weeks ahead. 

SX21 did make it back to the wedge breakout area on the daily chart yesterday. 

CZCH still north of 7¢. SXSF north of 5¢. Flat price continues short term drives on spreads. Flat price especially impacting on SXSN. 

Funds credited with buying 8K corn and 20K soybeans yesterday. Now estimated net long 250K corn and 78K soybeans. 

Will run the numbers on NC Iowa soybean crush calculation later this morning. 

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