Early Market Talk August 26, 2021

Emtwebsite

Previous two sessions testing, yet closing below 20 day moving average on the daily price chart. Perhaps keeping new spec buying in check. Without a significant story as driver, seasonal headwinds remain.

SX21 trading $13.27 3⁄4, 5¢ lower at 0600 and in the red all session to this point. Holding a narrow 7 1⁄2¢ high to low range. CZ21 off 3 1⁄4¢ at $5.48 1⁄2 in just a 3 1⁄4¢ range. Skimpy vol totals on these two of 11K on SX and 14 on CZ. Wheat markets all higher overnight. 

Dow futures little changed at 35,373. Crude off 71¢ at $67.65. US $ a scratch higher. 

Seems fitting for this morning; Bull markets need to be fed every day. Especially when facing a strong seasonal tendency. 

Radar showing a solid pocket of rain in northeast NE moving across the river into Iowa this morning. Recall a year ago a similar picture and hoping it held together to bring some rain into Iowa. Learned what a Derecho was later that morning. 

Basis all over the place. Some locations giving up substantial ground and others still paying a huge premium. Basis clock is ticking. Who is going to hold old crop into new crop this year? Somebody is going to leave a lot of money on the table. 

CZCH at 7¢ this morning. SXSF trading 4 1⁄2¢. SXSN still in double digits. 

Weekly corn grind totaled just 94.1 mln bu, 8.2 mln bu below what was needed this week to meet USDA’s 5.075 bln bu 20/21 target. 

Malaysian palm oil forming a head-and-shoulders top? In part MPO strength helping soy complex. 

Weekly export sales later this morning. 

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