Early Market Talk May 13, 2022


USDA surprising many yesterday with a lower corn yield as they threw out

previously used modeling in establishing initial yield. 

WASDE using a 177 national corn yield and the first time the initial May estimate was below the previous years initial estimate in 24 years. Last year the initial estimate in may was 179.5 bpa and ended up at 177. 

Initial US soybean yield estimate of 51.5 compares to the initial May estimate of a year ago at 50.8 bpa. Last year ended at 51.4 bpa. 

US corn production estimate at 14.773 bln bu was 327 mln bu below the trade guess. Ending stocks number at 1.44 bln bu above trade guess muting price reaction to a point. 

MN Wheat locked limit yesterday and running with expanded limits overnight. To this point un-needed with lead month July up just an additional 4¢. All wheat classes hit new contract highs yesterday. 

Corn and wheat continue to lead markets with many expecting further reductions in supply. 

Export Sales yesterday were disappointing. Net sales of old and new crop wheat, corn, and soybeans all at the bottom or below the average estimates. 

China auctioning 500K MT of imported soybeans from the State Reserves overnight. Should see results soon. 

Open interest in corn up 12 1⁄2K contracts in corn yesterday. Soybean OI off 6.2K.

At 0600 CN22 trading 2 1⁄4¢ higher at $7.93 3⁄4 with SN22 9 1⁄2¢ higher at $16.23 1⁄4. Dow futures up 229 points this morning at 31,881. Crude up $1.87 at $108.00. US $ Index giving up some ground. 

Updated CFTC Fund position data this afternoon. 

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