Early Market Talk June 17, 2022

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Happy Friday – Corn and soybeans showing stronger price action this morning after opening near unchanged. At 0600 CN22 trading 8¢ higher at $7.96 1⁄4. For the week corn up just over 22¢. Soybean’s trading 12¢ higher this morning at $17.21 1⁄4 yet 24 1⁄2¢ lower on the week. KC wheat near unchanged and 13¢ higher on the week.

Weather remains front and center with High pressure ridge to dominate the central US into July 1st. Forecast through then if it holds will not be a problem. It’s what the forecast looks like when we get to July 1st that will be the driver. If unchanged, the streak of “BULLISH’ news this market has uncovered going on two years now continues. 

Dow futures yesterday below 30,000 for the first time since January 2021. Down 4.7% for the week and on track for its 11th negative week in 12. 

CN22 had its 7th higher close of the previous 9 session yesterday. Demand and weather leading stories. If things don’t change quick, that Head & Shoulder chart pattern we are watching will join the other chart formation I vowed to never mention again in the trash heap of irrelevancy. 

CZ22 closed above its 50-day moving average. CN22 above trendline resistance. 

Corn basis remains strong and historically so. Inverse and strong basis screaming to get rid of hedge inventory. Does not say basis can’t or won’t improve but rather it is expensive. Own basis when cheap, sell when expensive. 

Feeders, get a basis commitment at a minimum. 

Glencore reported it made more money trading oil, metals, and other commodities in six months than it had expected to make all year. This the same company that said it would pay at least $1.2 billion in fines and two business units would plead guilty to bribery in the U.K. and to conspiracy to violate U.S. anticorruption laws over market manipulation and bribery. 

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