Early Market Talk February 1, 2021

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Corn out of the chute higher last night and been that way all night. Soybeans on both sides of unchanged. Trade suspecting further Chinese corn purchases this week which, after last week, have grown to near 18 mmt. Nearly 8 mmt of sales in the unknown category with a significant amount of that suspected China.

At 0600 CH21 trading 7 ¼¢ higher at $5.54 ¼ wit hSH21 7¢ higher at $13.77. Vol totals on these two contracts at 33 and 21K respectively. Chi wheat up a couple cents with KC unchanged.

Dow futures 250 points higher this morning at 30,129. Crude 54¢ higher at $52.74. US $ Index higher as well trading 90.81.

Updated with CFTC numbers Friday we now show Funds holding a net long in corn of 386K contracts and 163K in soybeans. Both numbers slightly smaller than what we had been estimating through the week.

Last week mentioned US Origin corn competitiveness in the spot market. Argentine corn basis now under US origin April – July. Stronger than anticipated China corn sales to take annual US corn export forecast up another 250 mln bu? Carryout dips below 1,300 mln bu and stocks use closer to 8.3 to 1.

CHCK clings to a ¼¢ carry. Concern that if we slip to inverse, we could see commercial run and push this tighter. Goldman roll starts today with a significant amount of the 646K in open interest hoping for an impact.

River delivery economics remain g well below cash values. FND 4 weeks away.

Weekly export inspections later this morning as are USDA December crush data and statistics.

Weather headlines this morning: Widespread showers for Brazil this week. Drier weather expected for Argentina next 10 days. Much colder weather for central U.S. this weekend and next week

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