Early Market Talk February 12, 2021

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Little more price recovery overnight with corn and soybeans higher most of the night. Higher but have yet to take out the highs made in each yesterday. Soybeans look to have settled into a wide sideways trade range. Corn, searching for technical support.

At 0600 CH21 trading 3¢ higher at $5.44 with SH21 4¢ higher at $13.71 ½. May contracts now leading in total open interest with CK21 at 629 vs 390K in CH. SK open interest at 269K vs 206K in the SH.

Index Fund roll now behind us. While DVE has deteriorated the past week still find it hard to believe we will see any deliveries at month end. With sharp inverses May forward and from a risk reward perspective, have all hedges forward that will not be prices against March futures.

BN rail freight remains tariff at best March – September.

Crop insurance price so far in February calculates to $4.51 and compares to 5 years of $3.93. Soybean calculation to this point is $11.65 compared to previous 5 years of $9.58.

China’s grain markets closed for the New Year’s Holiday no through the 18th.

Northern Brazil expected to see more rains the next 15 days.

Funds credited with buying 20K corn yesterday and now net long an estimated 324K contract. Had them buying 12K soybeans for a new net long of 167K. CFTC updates their data later this afternoon.

Winter wheat on Kill #3. Too cold.

No Sunday night or Monday trade in observance of Presidents Day.

Interesting to view CN21 against previous six years. Especially with a near 80¢ inverse to new crop values.

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