Early Market Talk February 19, 2021

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Two-sided trade again overnight in consolidative price action. Moderate volume on the lead two contracts on corn and soybeans totaling 31 and 64K respectively.

At 0600 CH21 off a ½¢ at $5.49 ¾ with SH21 2 ¾¢ higher at $13.77 ¾. Chi and KC wheat a couple cents higher.

Dow futures 57 points higher at 31,489. Crude off $1.26 at $59.26. US $ Index showing a large decline. US $ against the Brazilian Real stronger this morning.

Corn and soybean price action near midpoint of recent trade range and due for a breakout. Million $ question which way and what will be the driving story. Bull news getting tired.

Soybean market entering a strong seasonal for price weakness. Over the last 15 years soybean price has broke Mid Feb to Mid-March near 80% of the time.

Ag Outlook Forum has corn and soybean carryout for the 21/22 crop year at 1,552 and 145 mln bu respectively. Using a yield of 179.5 for corn and 50.8 bpa for soybeans. Look for the tables and link to the presentation following this report.

All eyes have been on spot corn and soybean spreads. Need to also keep an eye on CKCN and SKSN. Both still inverted but have cut the inverse in half.

Updated CFTC commitment of trader’s data this afternoon. We have a running total of Fund long in corn at 338K after selling 8K yesterday. Net long in soybeans estimated at 147K after selling 10K yesterday.

Mentioned soybean price seasonal above. Another seasonal worth mentioning is CZ21CN21. Bull spreading CZCN has worked nearly 90% of the time from late Feb – Late March.

Weather headlines this morning - Wet northern Brazil, dry southern Brazil, and Argentina next 15 days. Cold to continue in Russia, but winterkill not expected.

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