Early Market Talk February 4, 2020

Emtheader

Green overnight in the grains. Soybeans 6.25¢ higher at $8.83 ½ , but traded as high as $8.87. March Corn 2.75¢ @ $3.81 ½ . Soybeans yesterday closed higher on slightly higher open interest, while corn showed lower open interest and a lower close. 

Soybeans: interesting chart with the overnight trade. March soybean RSI (relative strength index) has been in over sold territory for the last week (or more depending on your methodology). With the overnight strength, it is currently sitting at 15.75. Oversold, depending on who you are, is 20 or 30 on the RSI. More on this later. Candlesticks themselves showing a slight reversal?? 

Several Brazilian forecaster’s increasing their Brazilian production forecast. A popular private report increased 1 MMT production to 123 MMT. FCStone Brazil from 121.76 MMT to ~124 MMT. 124 MMT would be roughly ~8% above last year’s crop. 

Coronavirus still exists. Reports of major cities on complete lockdown with military enforcement of the quarantine. Lots of Netflix. 

Livestock sector showing some break in the rapid downward movement it has also seen lately. 

Iowa Democratic caucus undecided overnight due to reporting issues after adoption of a new app at precinct sites across the state. Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status in jeopardy? New Hampshire has the rights to the first ‘Primary’, which is why Iowa has maintained a ‘caucus’ to hold it’s place first in line. 

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