Early Market Talk February 9, 2021


WASDE report day! February report over the years has typically not been overly impacting. Nothing typical about this year however and with that, encourage all orders, flat price, and spreads to be in and working no matter how unlikely to fill.

Noted yesterday the largest change in corn stocks between these reports was in ’13 with a 150 mln bu decline in stocks. That from a jump in exports. Last three years have seen some modest changes in bean carryout. Last two years soybean stocks have declined 50 and 45 mln bu. Three years ago saw the biggest Jan – Feb change with a 60 mln bu increase in stocks.

At 0600 CH21 3 ¾¢ higher at $5.67 ½ with SH21 16¢ higher at $14.03 ¾. Vol totals picking up again with 42k CH and 26k SH trading so far. CHCK spread trade accounting for nearly 40% of vol total on CH however.

CHCK 2 – 2 ¾ inverse overnight on volume of near 17K contracts. Open interest on CH remains at 518K. CK21 now the lead contracts in OI with 527K contracts.

Dow futures giving up 51 points this morning at 31,216.

Season large corn export inspections yesterday with 62.1 mln bu leaving the country. Interesting to see that if we were to do THAT number every week for the next 29 total exports on the year would be near 2,650 mln bu which is 100 mln bu more than current USDA estimate.

No direct parallels here but noting it was in 2014 that SN14 futures rallied over $3.00 a bu from the end of January into May as crop conditions in Argentina deteriorated. We are not out of the woods down there yet. Rally back then was from $12.34 the end of January to a peak high of $15.36 in May.

Funds credited with buying 30K corn and 15K beans yesterday. We have them net long 359K corn and 173K soybeans.

Report at 11:00 this morning……………

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