Early Market Talk January 11, 2021

Emtwebsite

Mixed overnight trade to start the week on big volume. SH21 has seen a 13 ¼¢ high to low range trading 6 ¼¢ higher at 0600. CH21 off a ½¢ at $4.95 ¾ and has seen a 10¢ high to low range. Volume on CH and SH at 41K each so far in the session.

Dow futures giving up over 200 points this morning trading 30,774. Crude off 28¢ at $51.95. US $ Index sharply higher at 90.515. US $ against the Brazilian real higher also this morning.

Dalian corn futures on fire overnight. Up the equivalent of 23¢ and making a new all time high. Old high was set in September of 2014.

USDA production, stocks and monthly supply / demand reports tomorrow. Hard to imagine a bearish reaction from the numbers tomorrow but after a string of “surprises” over the last year, don’t rule out anything.

CFTC data late Friday showed Funds not holding as big of a net long in soybeans as expected. A miss from out tally of nearly 64K contracts. Updated with that data we now have them net long 176K. the smallest net long since August.

Fund long in corn today estimated at 342K contracts. Largest net long since 2011.

Soybean deliveries against SF21 totaled 61 lots. Bunge putting out 36 lots. Last trade date assigned through the 8th. Last trading day on FSF21 Thursday.

First sign of price rationing? Soybean oil now trading lower. Crush calculation Wednesday will be interesting. Meal trading $3.00 higher this morning.

Wheat working into feed rations in TX panhandle.

Argentina has lifted a suspension on corn exports announced in December and will opt instead for a temporary 30,000 tonne daily cap on sales abroad.

Weekly export inspection data later this morning.

Today’s weather headlines: Rain to lead to some improvements in Brazil this week. Forecast trends wetter in central Argentina this week

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