Early Market Talk January 12, 2021


Biggest report day of the year. WASDE Monthly Supply / Demand, NASS final production and quarterly stocks data dump at 11:00. Thoughts are USDA tightens US corn stocks but perhaps not as much as trade ideas. Soybean data could challenge tightest ever stocks / use levels and provide explosive trade. Then I lean back and think, everybody is on the same side of this boat.

Price limits 25¢ on corn, 70¢ on soybeans, $25.00 on meal and all wheat contracts 60¢. Always good practice to have offers in and working that are inside the price range. Spreads too no matter how unlikely.

At 0600 CH21 up 1 ¾¢ at $4.94 with SH21 4 ½¢ higher at $13.77. Chi wheat trading 12¢ higher. Vol totals at 20 and 22K on CH and SH to this point.

Crude up another 73¢ at $52.98 and another new high for the move off the lows of last April. Remember, when crude traded a negative 40.32! Dow futures 53 pts higher at 30,957. US $ Index a scratch lower.

Last trade day for SF21 today. Deliveries totaled 70 lots this morning. Wells Fargo (commercial customer?) stopped 62.

Corn and soybeans open interest off 3,764 and 9,740 contracts yesterday. First drop in corn OI in 10 days of trade.

Well followed analyst has 2020/21 Brazil Soybean production at 128.0 mmt and unchanged from his previous. USDA currently at 133 mmt. (183 mln bu difference)

A few early harvests report out of Mato Grosso which is Brazil’s largest soybean producing state. Delayed planting and weather conditions to date expected to delay harvest between mid Feb / early March. 15-20 days later than normal.

Funds net long an estimated 327K corn and 172K soybeans.

Weather headlines: Increased rainfall to ease long-term rainfall deficits in Brazil. More rain for Argentina later this week, but dry 6-15-day forecast.

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