Early Market Talk January 14, 2022

Emtwebsite

At 0545 corn trading 1 1⁄2¢ higher at $5.89. Has seen a 4 1⁄2 high to low range on decent volume of near 19K contracts. Soybeans in the red all night. Traded as much as 14¢ lower but have cut that in half at this writing. Vol on SH near 19K as well.

New high for crude overnight at $83.35. “Experts” talking $100 crude. Dow futures up 73 points at 36,062. US $ Index a scratch firmer after breaking below yesterday’s low. 

Interesting open interest data on yesterday’s price decline. Corn OI down 9,696 giving back the 9,341 increase on report day. Soybean OI up over 5K on a 22¢ price break. 

First area of chart support on SH22 in the $13.30 area. Second support area closer to the $12.75 - $13.00 area. Arg / Brazil weather trumps all, however. Place your bets. 

Argentine corn and soybean crop ratings that were near 90% Good / Excellent to start the year, now near 20 and 30% respectively. Next weeks forecast rains had better materialize. 

SHSK trading 10¢ overnight. Covers interest and leaves some for storage. 

If I recall correctly, the last time 80% of full carry-on soybeans was discussed, was back when the CME increased storage rates to adjust full carry calculations. To have the delivery process better reflect cash values. 

Export sales yesterday disappointing all the way around. 

Funds net long an estimated 333K corn. Down from a high of 370K the end of December. CFTC updated data later this afternoon. Soybean net long estimated at 95K after selling near 12K yesterday. 

All eyes on South American weather. Sunday night trade could be interesting. 

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