Early Market Talk January 15, 2020

Emtheader

Phase One trade deal expected to be signed at 10:30 this morning. Trade headlines or reality? Continue to view with suspicion anything proposed or promised that will impact the 19/20 balance sheets.

Low volume trade continues with limited overnight activity. At 0600 CH20 unc at $3.89 with SH20 giving up 1 ½¢ at $9.39 ¾. Chi and KC wheat up 4 ¾ and 3¢ respectively.

Dow futures off 43 pts at 28,892 after falling 7 pts shy of the all-time high set last Friday. Crude 5¢ higher at $58.28. US $ a scratch weaker this morning.

Corn open interest up 7K contracts yesterday. Up nearly 50K contracts since last Wednesday? Interesting with hedge activity so light and Funds net short.

NOPA crush report later this morning. Will run our NC IA crush margin calculation later as well.

Rain expected to continue in Rio Grande do Sul leading to additional minor improvements in soil moisture there. Overall some shade of a 122 mmt bean crop expected in Brazil that will produce some stiff competition to US exports in a couple months.

Palm oil sharply lower overnight and technically has some more downside room. Quick look at that to follow.

Funds sold a net 5K corn yesterday bringing their estimated net short to 81K. Have them net short 5K soybeans.

Phase One trade deal signing impact or lack of soon……

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