Early Market Talk January 24, 2020

Emtheader

Whole lotta red on the screen to start the last day of the week. At 0600 CH20 trading 3¢ lower at $3.90 ¾ with SH20 off 4 ½¢ at $9.05. Both showing typical overnight volume totals. Chi wheat off 6¢ with KC off 4 ½¢.

Dow futures at 21,198 up 71 pts. Crude 20¢at $55.39. US $ firm. CH20 hit a new high for the move yesterday 18 ¾¢ off its recent low. Also marks the highest price since November 4th. Combined with strong basis, farmgate corn price at the highest level this date in 5 years. My take, with no new crop 2020 sold, I’d dump any old crop inventory still owned.

Palm oil futures sharply lower overnight and set to challenge last weeks low. Head and shoulder top chart formation developing?

Export sales this morning. Trade expecting corn sales between 700K and 1.2 mmt. Soybean sales between 800K and 1.2 mmt.

Ethanol production pace for the week reported 1.7% over a year ago but still running below pace needed to reach USDA annual forecast.

Funds credited with buying 14K corn yesterday bringing their net short to 78K. Sold an estimated 5K soybeans and we have them net short 25K.

Updated CFTC data this afternoon. 

SX20SN21 trading into a small carry yesterday and settled at -$01 ¾. Brazil weather largely benign. In Argentina, drier weather prevailed over the past few days with hotter and drier than normal conditions expected over the next 10. Hard not to recall the 2016 situation that started with oil and then prod problems in Arg. SN16 rallied $3.44 between March and June…

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