Early Market Talk January 28, 2021

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Erratic trade continues. Overnight, Corn has seen a 12¢ high to low range. Trading nearly 5¢ lower early but recovering since midnight. Soybeans off near 9¢ early and have recovered for a 21 ¼¢ high to low range as 0f 0630.

Markets most Bullish at the top? Not sure we have made it to the level of bullishness seen back when were losing 15 mln corn acres and a CN rally of $1.21. But this is as much or more about demand than supply. Maybe more like a 95/96 scenario?

Have a lot more demand work to do to get to the 95/96 scenario. Stocks use ratio in 95/96 was the tightest in corn ever at 3.6 at one point. It’s 10.6 today.

At 0630 CH21 7¢ higher at $5.41. SH21 12 ½¢ higher at $13.87 ¼. Vol totals strong at 41 and 32K contracts respectively. KC and Chi wheat each a scratch lower.

Dow futures 38 points higher. Crude off 18¢. US $ Index just above unchanged.

Corn open interest up 4,331 contracts yesterday. Soybean OI off 7,663.

Goldman roll starts Monday. Big part of 663,736 contracts hoping for an impact. CHCK at a 1¢ carry this morning with river delivery calcs favoring talking delivery by nearly 6¢. A month to go before FND on CH21.

Funds credited with buying 5K contracts yesterday bringing their net long to an estimated 363K contract. Had them buyers of 10K soybeans for a new estimated net long of 134K. CFTC data tomorrow should be interesting once again.

Hearing some 25 – 27 mmt of Chinese corn import talk this morning. USDA currently at 17.5 mmt but attaché has it at 22 mmt. Is this like losing 15 million corn acres in terms of market psychology?

Export sales at 0730…

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