Early Market Talk January 29, 2021

Emtwebsite

Over 15 mmt of corn sold to China officially (near 590 mln bu) which does not include anything out of the “unknown category”. That category has 7.8 mmt listed with a significant portion attributed by many to be China.

US Corn still the least expensive cheapest in the spot world market.

Open interest in corn up 21,954 contracts yesterday on volume of over 538K contracts. Largest OI gain and Vol totals since the two-day reaction to the January crop reports.

Two-sided trade overnight but strengthening near midnight. At 0600 CH21 trading 7 ½¢ higher at $5.42 and has once again seen a double digit high to low price range. SH21 10 ½¢ higher at $13.63 ¾ in a 19 ¼¢ high to low range.

Dalian corn futures losing the equivalent of 23¢ over the previous two sessions. Down 11¢ overnight and 12¢ the previous session.

Little forewarning, with just over 3.7 mmt of corn sales to China announced through the 24-hour reporting system, as well as sales to Mexico and Japan. Next week’s export sales report number should top 4 mmt and most certainly a top 5 week of sales ever.

Funds credited with buying a net 5K corn yesterday bringing their estimated net long to 368K contracts. Sold an estimated 10K soybean for a new net long of 124K.

CFTC commitment of Traders data this afternoon. Updates Fund positions through this past Tuesday. Also updates the commercial short which has been setting new records for number of contracts (i.e. hedge corn).

Last day of January. Goldman Roll starts Monday and runs through the week.

CME saw fit to increase speculative position limits. Old limit was 33K contracts in all months for corn. New limit 57,800. Starts March 15th. More volatility.

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