Early Market Talk January 4, 2021


What a way to start the new year. Pick your excuse but markets seem to be feeding off each other. At 0600 CH21 up 8 ¼¢ at $4.92 ¼ with SH21 30 ¾¢ higher at $13.41 ¾. Near 80K corn and 100K contracts of soybean trading so far in the overnight.

Dryer weather forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil perhaps the catalyst for overnight strength but suspect inflation, money flow and “me too” buying a bigger part?

Tightest soybean stocks use ratio ever for this time of year underlies all the trade noise. SNSX inverse at $1.91 the largest ever this date. Products leading the way higher and no hint of rationing crush to this point.

Dow futures 159 points higher at 30,656. Crude about the only thing red out there this morning off 34¢ at $48.24.

Ethanol crush margin cringe worthy and calls into question total corn use.

Soybean open interest lower Thursday making it six of the last seven session OI has dropped. Total decrease of 64K contracts. Seven period RSI near the highest of the year at 93.

Same 5 lots of beans delivered Thursday out again this morning.

Final corn and soybean production, qtrly stocks and supply / demand data a week from tomorrow. As noted before strong correlation for corn yield to decline in years where there was a decline between Oct and Nov like this year. Soybeans more random.

Weekly export inspections at 10:00 this morning.

Today’s weather Headlines: Widespread, but relatively light, rainfall for Brazil this week. Limited rainfall for most of Argentina this week. More rain for the Delta this week, dry in the western Plains

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