Early Market Talk January 6, 2021

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Race to the top continues. At 0600 SH21 trading 25¢ higher at $13.72. Spot month corn 6 ¼¢ higher at $4.98. Vol on these lead two contracts 51 and 59K respectively.

SH21 has rallied 5.46 ¼ off its April 24th low making it the second biggest rally over this specific time period. Largest was $5.92 in 2007 into Jan ’08. That rally continued after a sharp break in March to make the record high to low rally for soybeans at $10.32 after peaking at $16.63 in July. 

Huge bean volume yesterday of over 400K contracts. Open Interest up 10,825 in total. Corn OI up 12,284 contracts also on volume just topping 400K.

Dow futures trading 71 points higher this morning at 30,353. Crude a scratch lower at $49.90 after sharp gains yesterday. US $ Index giving up more ground this morning at 89.225.

Same 25 lots of soybeans delivered yesterday put back out overnight. Delivery date current through yesterday. Open interest in SF21 just under 2,500 this morning.

Weekly EIA energy reports later this morning. Interesting to see once again ethanol production and stocks data.

Soybean and corn markets continue to price in “what if” scenarios with weather still a factor combined with Ukraine restricting corn exports until March and China in talks with Brazil on corn exports. Next Tuesday reports gasoline or water?

CME raising futures margins again. Corn goes to $1,100 and soybeans to $2,750.00.

Weather Headlines: Showers to improve soil moisture in Goias and Minas Gerais Brazil. Model confidence plummets in Brazil and Argentina. Long term outlook remains dry in Argentina.

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