Early Market Talk January 9, 2020

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Lighter volume in the overnight trade, but the ticks show up green as traders square up positions prior to Friday’s WASDE. March Corn up 2¢ @ $3.8625 with 10,482 contracts of volume. March soybeans up 3.75¢ at $9.51 on 14,569 contracts of volume. 

Wheat up 3.5¢ @ $5.5625; Bean oil up $.25 @ $34.81; Bean meal continuing a range bound trade, up $.90 @ $302.70. Dollar continues it’s strength of the last 5 days, currently trading at 97.42.

South American crop remains basically worry-free, save far southern Argentina and Rio Grande Do Sul in southern Brazil. Precipitation concerns in both of those areas are likely to be mitigated within the next week. 

CH:N trading -13.25¢, testing the highest carry of the last few months. 

Trade deal news: likely another reason for the green overnight. Confirmation of signing of the ‘Phase One’ deal next week in Washington has the trade slightly optimistic. Does signing a ‘Phase One’ automatically equate to physical agricultural purchases by China? Certainly doesn’t hurt. Signing to occur Jan 15. Hard to believe anything outside of conciliatory purchases are done, given US soybeans into China hold ~10¢ premium to Brazil soybeans landed in China. Economics usually wins. 

WASDE Friday morning 11 AM 

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