Early Market Talk July 10, 2020

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Mixed overnight trade on decent volume. At 0630 CU20 a ¼¢ higher at $3.49 with SQ20 1 ½¢ higher at $8.98. KC wheat giving up 2 ½¢ at $4.54 ¼.

Dow futures giving up 164 points this morning at 25,404. Crude 54¢ lower at $39.08.

USDA Supply / Demand report at 11:00 this morning. Ave trade guess for old crop corn nearly 100 mln bu more than the June report due largely to larger June stocks. New crop carryout ave guess of 2,683 down over 600 mln bu from June due to acres down near 5 mln. Trade perhaps too aggressive with demand. My bias is USDA corn carryout will be larger than trade Averages.

ATG on soybean old crop carryout at 585 mln bu unchanged form June. New crop at 416 mln bu a scratch higher from incorporating June acreage. IUSDA perhaps to conservative with a current yield of 49.8 bpa. More likely see 51 bpa adding near 100 mln bu to new crop carryout.

Updated CFTC commitment of trader’s data this afternoon. As of this morning, we have Funds net short 175K corn long 73K.

Forecast not as hot and dry across the central and southern Midwest today, but below normal rainfall still expected over the next 15 days. There are still major differences between the GFS and European model forecasts however, which keeps confidence in the precipitation forecast below normal. Above normal temperatures are still expected across most of the corn belt over the next 15 days, especially later next week.

Price seasonal for corn and soybeans rolling over this time of year. Producer may want to pay attention to that. Form a commercial perspective, spreads also have a strong tendency to weaken.

Report at 11:00. Trade for a few minutes then back to weather watching.

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