Early Market Talk July 21, 2020


Grain markets in the red this morning with additional rains favoring mostly southern areas. More rains expected the next 7 days over a larger area. No extreme heat or dome / ridge in longer range models. Crop ratings unchanged also adding to pressure. Seasonal also continues to get attention.

At 0600 giving up another 3 ½¢ at $3.24 ¾ with SQ20 off 5¢ at $8.98. Vol a tick higher than yesterday but still modest at best. KC wheat showing a fractional loss. Dow futures 166 pts higher at 26,799. Crude $1.12 higher at $41.93.

Weekly crop condition report showed corn G/E rating unchanged on the week at 69%. Trade expected a 1% drop. Current rating 12% higher than a year ago this date and 2% above the 5-year ave. Best rated crops in IA, MN and SD at 80, 83 and 84% G/E. Worst IL, IN and OH at 63, 59 and 43%.

Soybean G/E rating also unchanged wk/wk at 68%. Current rating 14% better than a year ago and 5% above the 5-year ave. Like corn, best rated crops in IA, MN and SD at 79, 80 and 81% G/E. IL, IN and OH 67, 60 and 48% G/E.

Yesterday looked at chart showing dates of seasonal lows for corn and soybeans over the previous 5 years. Noted Aug 15th was the earliest Soybean low and Aug 31st for corn. Suspect that window has a good shot again this year.

Flat price pressure has CZCN relaxing. Trading 23¢ this morning and suspect a retest of the 28¢ high seen May 4th in the days / weeks ahead.

SXSF at 4 ¼¢ this morning and shows only one year this date tighter over the previous 5. Only once (2015) over the last 5 years has that spread gone off the board tighter than today.

Funds sold an estimated 12K corn yesterday. Now short 138K……

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