Early Market Talk July 22, 2021

Emtwebsite

Corn market opened the night session a penny lower and has accelerated losses since. SX21 unchanged on the open and has seen losses grow to 21¢ by 0530. Vol totals more typical of night session trade with 19K on CZ21 and SX21.

At 0530 CZ21 trading 13 3⁄4¢ lower at $5.54 3⁄4 and 2 1⁄2¢ off eh overnight low to this point. SX21 21 3⁄4¢ lower at $13.68 in a 28¢ range to this point. MN wheat also sharply lower down 20 3⁄4¢. KC wheat 12 1⁄4¢ lower. 

As you would suspect with sharply lower trade on July 22nd, weather maps inserting rains late in the 10 – 15-day period the impetus for weakness. Northwest belt does have some lite rain in the forecast early next week but heat leading up. Stage set for weather model flip flops in the next few days. 

Losing bushels every day in the NW. Gaining them in other areas of the country continues to fuel ultimate corn and soybean yield debate. USDA still gives us a subjective yield estimate in August. September the first objective yield. 

Regional corn and soybeans stocks will be an interesting dynamic this year. Grain flows will have to change to fill the void left in the Dakotas this year. 

Dow futures 80 points higher this morning at 34,770. Crude up 77¢ at $71.77. US $ Index a scratch lower. 

Ethanol production down 1.2% last week and the second consecutive week of declines. Stocks grew 6.5% wk/wk. Weekly corn grind totaled 104 mln bu, up 5.6 mln bu from what is needed to hit USDA’s forecast. Some suggest USDA estimate too low. 

On overnight weakness CZCH trading 7 1⁄2¢. SXSF knocking on the door of 4¢ once more. 

Export sales later this morning but most assuredly will take a back seat to weather maps. 

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