Early Market Talk July 30, 2020


Another quiet overnight session with corn inside a 2¢ range and soybeans inside 4¢. At 0600 CZ20 trading unchanged at $3.26 ¼ with SX20 off 3 ¼¢ at $8.82. Volume totals of 14 and 12K contracts respectively on theses two. KC wheat giving up 7¢.

Dow futures trading 242 points lower at 26,205. Crude off 87¢ at $40.40.

Dalian corn futures remain at highs for the move trading the US equivalent of $8.37 per bu. Up from near $7.00 the end of last year. The record high Dalian corn futures price was near $10.00 back in September of ’14.

The last announced US corn sale to China was back on July 21st with 182K tonnes committed. Total US corn sales to China for the new crop 20/21 crop year stand at 3.91 mmt or 154 mln bu.

Corn open interest up 20K contracts on yesterday’s price decline with soybean OI off near 4K. New shorts for corn. Long liquidation in soybeans.

First notice day for August soybean deliveries is tomorrow. No receipts registered for delivery. None expected.

CZ20 trading within 4¢ of the June 26th contract low of $3.22. Seasonal price action would suggest this low at risk of being breached. Over the previous five years the earliest low price on a CZ contract was made was September 1st. Chart attached on this email for review.

CZCN trading 25 ¾¢ this morning unchanged from yesterday’s close. CUCZ moving to 11¢. Initial target on CUCZ 13¢ and 15¢ not unattainable. Southern harvest not that far off and makes utility of CU20 deliveries questionable.

Next USDA monthly Supply / Demand report August 12th. Corn carryout some shade of 2.6 bln bu expected. Soybeans north of 425 mln bu.

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