Early Market Talk July 6, 2020

Emtheader

Trade anxiety growing on hot / dry weather across much of the belt. While arguably not a problem today, you know how these things work. Fund short in corn remains fuel. CZ20 still below last week’s highs.

At 0630 CU20 trading 4 ¾¢ higher at $3.48 ¼ with SQ20 8 ¼¢ higher at $8.99 ½. Solid volume of 66 and 46K respectively. KC wheat trading 5¢ higher at $4.39 ¼ as well.

Dow futures up 331 points at 26,901 this morning building on last week’s gains. Crude a scratch g=higher at $40.65. US $ showing big losses this morning.

Hot and dry weather for the central Midwest next 15 days. Some rain expected to favor the northern Plains and northwestern Midwest over the next few days and spread into the central and eastern Midwest late this week. Rain will boost soil moisture across northwestern portions of the corn belt, but above normal temperatures and only light showers incentral and eastern portions of the corn belt will allow dryness to linger.

Corn open interest off 23K Thursday on more short covering. Soybean OI off just shy of 2K.

No corn or soybean deliveries overnight.

CFTC data on Fund position delayed form Friday will be out this afternoon. WE currently show Funds holding a net short corn position of 243K contracts. Long 59K soybeans.

Weekly crop ratings this afternoon should be stable and leaning toward a 1-point improvement. Expect corn G/E 73 – 74% and soybeans 71 – 72%.

Current ratings still argue for final yield estimates north of current USDA estimates of 178.5 and 49.8 bpa and in the universe of possibilities.

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