Early Market Talk June 10, 2020


WASDE monthly Supply / Demand reports tomorrow. Most have see average trade guesses with largely cosmetic changes expected. A 100 mln drop in corn used for ethanol perhaps the biggest change with other categories waiting on quarterly stocks data at month end.

Last year witnessed the largest deviation in corn carryout from a May to June report with corn carryout down a record 810 mln bu. A record 10 bpa yield drop from 176 to 166 the cause. Shocked to see any a yield change this year. Historically over 75% of the time corn yield between the May and June report has been unchanged and has been increased only once. That was back in 1984.

At 0600 CN20 trading off 1 ½¢ at $3.26 with SN20 off 2 ¾¢ at $8.66. Solid volume on these two contracts of 21 and 15K. Chi and KC wheat up 4¢.

Dow futures 34 points lower at 27,230. Crude a buck and change lower at $37.87. US $ Index showing significant decline at 96.015.

Corn open interest up 13K contracts yesterday on 502K contracts of volume. Implies new shorts with markets at highs for the move and hitting technical resistance.

Funds credited with selling 12K corn yesterday and now estimated net short 278K contracts. Sold 1K soybeans and now net long 20K contracts.

Latest 31-60-day temperature outlook trending cooler across the NW Midwest and N Plains. Precip outlook slightly drier across the NW and SW Plains and slightly wetter in the central Plains.

Corn market fighting head winds of largely favorable growing conditions and largest carryout forecast in years. Still, market remains firmly in uptrend. For now……………

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