Early Market Talk June 11, 2020

Emtheader

Report day is here. A month ago, USDA had corn carryout at 2,098 and 3,318 for old and new crop. Trade guess 2,150 and 3,360 respectively today. Soybean c/o last month 580 and 405. Ave trade guess for today at 577 and 426.

Mixed trade overnight heading into the report with CN20 unchanged at $3.26 ¼ and SN20 2 ½¢ higher at $8.63 ¼. Vol decent at 17 and 13K on these two contracts. CUCZ spread vol at 7K trading between 5 ¼ and 5 ¾¢. KC and Chi wheat giving up 4¢.

Technical corn traders have run market up through Monday. Tuesday and again yesterday Fundamental traders saying that’s enough? Open interest sharply higher Tuesday and another up another 17K yesterday.

Dow futures off 633 points at 26.322 on renewed fears a second wave of virus will impact economy further and Federal Reserve forecast a 6.5% contraction in U.S. GDP for 2020, with a 5% rebound in 2021 and 3.5% growth in 2022.

Weekly export sales later this morning with expectations for both corn and soybeans to top 1 mmt each.

Weekly ethanol production continues to rebound with 837K barrels produced for the week. Up from 765K the previous. Total production off near 25% from a year ago.

Private group in Brazil suggesting near 88% of Brazil’s soybean crop has been sold with sales of new crop 20/21 at 33%. Well ahead of the five year average. No surprise with record high prices due to currency values.

Report at 11:00 this morning with no actionable changes expected……..

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