Early Market Talk June 15, 2020

Emtheader

Corn market ended its streak of weekly higher closes at five. Finished last week off 1 ¼¢ on the week. CN20 did make a new high for the move however for the 6th straight week. Soybean market unable to takeout its previous week high and high for the recent move of $8.73 but did test that level. SN20 ended 3 ½¢ higher on the week.

At 0600 CN20 trading off 2¢ at $3.28. SN20 off 4¢ at $8.66 ¾¢. Bot seeing solid volume of 21 and 18K contracts respectively. Spread volume however again nearly 50% of those totals.

Dow futures sharply lower this morning as headlines are full of “Signs of a second wave of Corona virus cases as the US economy reopens” are everywhere. Dow futures off over 600 points at 24,907. Crude 70 ¢ lower at $35.55. US $ Index showing modest weakness.

Weekly crop ratings this afternoon expected to show corn 1% better than last week’s 75% rating. Soybean condition also expected a point or two higher than last week’s 72%.

CFTC data Friday showed Funds holding a bigger short than trade guessed. With them selling a net 3K last week we now have them net short 297K contracts. As mentioned previously, Funds have been net short since last August. Every week that goes by makes a new record for the length of time Funds have held a net short position.

Weather outlook for the last 10 days of June and heading into July look near ideal. Leaning toward a balance sheet that uses a corn yield north of 178.5 bpa which is the current USDA estimate.

The best monthly corn yield estimate USDA has ever put out was a 181.3 bpa estimate in the September of 2018 report.

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