Early Market Talk June 17, 2020


Poor corn futures close yesterday paved the way for overnight pressure. At 0600 CN20 trading $3.26 ¾ off another 2 ¼¢. SN20 off 1 ¼ at $8.56 ¾. KC and Chi wheat both off 4¢.

Interesting to see a big jump in corn open interest of 22K yesterday with soybean up 6K.

Dow futures 152 points higher this morning. Higher close today would make it four straight. Still 1,100 points off last week high at 27,624.

Crude oil giving up 70¢ this morning at $37.70. US $ Index highe3r. After a washout yesterday, Oats trading a scratch higher. .

Yesterday looked at a daily corn chart noting that the close could prove pivotal. Perhaps it was. Poor close has many suggesting a double top at $3.34 ¾ on the CN20 daily chart. With a six-week rally to date (modest as it was) the door opens for additional weakness.

If true, the above holds basis /spread implications? Does producer hold with lower price or bail on old crop stocks to avoid further price erosion?

NOAA weather maps still have decent rains in the forecast over the next 7 days. Quick weather comments on models in the text section of email talks about some model differences.

Funds currently holding a net short in corn estimated just shy of 300K contracts. Long a net 24K soybeans.

Will take a quick look at weekly soy crush margins for north central Iowa a little later this morning.

CZCN at 23 ½ and just may have seen a short-term bottom

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